Monday, September 7, 2009
Who would"ve Thought ???
Thomas Ferraro for Rueters wrote an article titled; “Lawmakers seek survival in unpopular Congress”. Ferraro claims, “many incumbents, both Democrats and Republicans, are beginning to worry about holding on to their seats in November 2010 elections.” He believes this is due to the miserable showing the Congress has had in recent polling.
The key noun in the above quote is “incumbents” and the key adjective is “many”. As the vast majority of people willing to take the time to vote realize; the Congress is overwhelmingly Democratic. They also know the vast number of “Incumbents” are Democrats.
Now add to that, the amazing fact that the Republicans with far fewer seats, have more of their number not running for reelection for various reasons. If the vote in 2010 hinges upon throwing the bums out as the Rueters article above hints: the Democrats may have far more than Republicans to throw out than Mr. Ferraro thinks.
General wisdom stated that the Democrats had a chance to pick up some of those vacated Republican seats in Republican leaning districts. But let me pose a question. If you were a usual Republican voter or an independent in that Republican leaning district and you like the polls indicate above were fed up with incumbents and Congress in general would you want a new (non incumbent) Republican or a (non incumbent) Democrat in that seat? Would you want to take a shot at the Incumbent Democrat Congress and vote Republican?
The Cook Report (see link below) caused a stir early last month, when it talked of the Democrats possibly losing 20 seats instead of the expected (at the time) 6-12.
Mr. Cook’s exact words were “…..that the chances of Democratic losses going higher than 20 seats is just as good as the chances of Democratic losses going lower than 20 seats.” In the article which was from the middle of August he points to falling poll numbers for President Obama and Congress. Those numbers as the first article above allude too have fallen even lower in September.
If you add to that the idea of Republicans retaining the majority of their vacated seats, Pelosi and crew better get poppin.
Now if Republicans can in this years elections win the two Governorships in New Jersey and Virginia away from the Democrats and a special State Senate election in Michigan’s 19th district; the momentum which would result will I predict give Republicans 30 seats in the House.
Either with a 20 or 30 seat pick up when combined with the Blue Dogs, a ruling coalition could be created. The Liberal leadership of the Democrat party have underestimated the will of the American people. If the Republicans don’t they have a chance. If they can connect with the people like Ronald Reagan learned to do the chance becomes real. At the beginning of the year, "Who would"ve Thought ???"
Regards, Live Dangerously Be A Conservative