Who would"ve Thought ???

Thomas Ferraro for Rueters wrote an article titled; “Lawmakers seek survival in unpopular Congress”. Ferraro claims, “many incumbents, both Democrats and Republicans, are beginning to worry about holding on to their seats in November 2010 elections.” He believes this is due to the miserable showing the Congress has had in recent polling.

-----link-----
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090906/pl_nm/us_usa_congress_preview
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The key noun in the above quote is “incumbents” and the key adjective is “many”. As the vast majority of people willing to take the time to vote realize; the Congress is overwhelmingly Democratic. They also know the vast number of “Incumbents” are Democrats.

Now add to that, the amazing fact that the Republicans with far fewer seats, have more of their number not running for reelection for various reasons. If the vote in 2010 hinges upon throwing the bums out as the Rueters article above hints: the Democrats may have far more than Republicans to throw out than Mr. Ferraro thinks.

General wisdom stated that the Democrats had a chance to pick up some of those vacated Republican seats in Republican leaning districts. But let me pose a question. If you were a usual Republican voter or an independent in that Republican leaning district and you like the polls indicate above were fed up with incumbents and Congress in general would you want a new (non incumbent) Republican or a (non incumbent) Democrat in that seat? Would you want to take a shot at the Incumbent Democrat Congress and vote Republican?

The Cook Report (see link below) caused a stir early last month, when it talked of the Democrats possibly losing 20 seats instead of the expected (at the time) 6-12.

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http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/charlie_cook_democrats_/2009/08/21/250796.html?s=al&promo_code=85E2-1
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Mr. Cook’s exact words were “…..that the chances of Democratic losses going higher than 20 seats is just as good as the chances of Democratic losses going lower than 20 seats.” In the article which was from the middle of August he points to falling poll numbers for President Obama and Congress. Those numbers as the first article above allude too have fallen even lower in September.

If you add to that the idea of Republicans retaining the majority of their vacated seats, Pelosi and crew better get poppin.

Now if Republicans can in this years elections win the two Governorships in New Jersey and Virginia away from the Democrats and a special State Senate election in Michigan’s 19th district; the momentum which would result will I predict give Republicans 30 seats in the House.

Either with a 20 or 30 seat pick up when combined with the Blue Dogs, a ruling coalition could be created. The Liberal leadership of the Democrat party have underestimated the will of the American people. If the Republicans don’t they have a chance. If they can connect with the people like Ronald Reagan learned to do the chance becomes real. At the beginning of the year, "Who would"ve Thought ???"

Regards, Live Dangerously Be A Conservative

If We Don’t Muck It Up

If We Don’t Muck It Up

Politico has an article today titled “Labor gears up for key governors races” by Alex Isenstadt, about the crucial gubernatorial elections coming up in Virginia and New Jersey and the massive effort the unions are going to pour into them on behalf of the struggling Democrat candidates.

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http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0809/26593.html
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This is a good update on those two races that I predict will be a harbinger of a Republican victory in 2010. See my previous post about this.

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http://conservativeinmuskegon.blogspot.com/search?q=corzine
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I’m not talking here about some donations from the state and local unions and a few union people marching in a parade. I’m talking massive support in the millions of dollars from the national union organizations. See the quote from the article below.

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“There is a lot of attention being placed on these races,” said Larry Scanlon, political director for the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees. “I’ll tell you how big a deal they are: We’re already committing at least $2 million to New Jersey and have already spent $1 million in Virginia.”
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The union bosses in the article mention that the governor is the employer of the government union workers, and they want to buy the guy they want and put him in office. The blatant-ness of this Democrat Big Union effort is pretty astounding. The arrogance with which they treat the common union member is also telling. In the New Jersey race which pits the incumbent governor (Democrat) Jon Corzine against, challenger (Republican) Chris Christie; the actual union members according to a poll in early August favor the Republican Christie over Corzine by a margin of 48%-30% in union households. I don’t think the AFL-CIO is holding elections with the New Jersey union members on who they want to back. Did I mention arrogance? Let me add the word disdain for the way they treat their members as well.

The rank and file are beginning to see that their best interests are no longer being served any better with Big Labor as they are by Big Business. In fact Business is in a better position to actually help them than Labor by providing jobs. Unions are the main motivators for jobs to leave the state.

The article points out that Virginia is a right to work state and only 4.1% of workers are in unions. The Virginia race pits Republican nominee Bob McDonnell against Democrat nominee Creigh Deeds.

Creigh Deeds the Democrat who is and will be receiving millions from Big Labor is trying to position himself as a centrist in favor of small business. I sure hope the small business people understand what’s at stake, and whether they want a Big Union bought Governor who is against Virginia being a right to work state.

Here is a link to a Rasmussen poll from Aug. 11th that shows McDonnell stretching his lead over Deeds. Also note the favorability of Deeds has slipped and McDonnell’s approval numbers have risen all in the last month. The article also points out that Obama’s numbers in the same time have slipped also. I also see that there is evidence that the Obama Liberal wave from 2008, like any wave when it hits the shore, it’s energy is spent and it starts to recede.

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http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2009/virginia/election_2009_virginia_governor_election
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The question seems whether the voters have had enough and are willing to stand up to the inevitable bullying of the radical left and the unions. The other question is whether the Republican candidates and Party can fight back without becoming as one of them.

I plan on watching the poll numbers on these races pretty closely. I think the Obama administration and Harry Reid struggling in Arizona will be too. They both know that as one wave recedes it builds strength for another. This one will be a Republican wave if we let it, if we don’t get in it’s way – If we don’t Muck it up.

Regards, Live Dangerously Be A Conservative

Why We Are Republicans

Why we are Republicans

The recent bloggers event in Pittsburg by Americans for Prosperity had a great array of speakers and I wish I could of afforded to go. This was a bloggers convention thank God so I was assured I could find plenty on YouTube about it. Below is a link to Grover Norquist on YouTube part 1of his talk at the Pittsburg event.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGg2BeYtlkk
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If you look to the right while the video is playing you will see a whole list of other you tubes from the bloggers convention? Try Michelle Malkin, or Steve Moore from the Wall St. Journal editorial pages. The list is long and impressive. More importantly what they say is more so.

I highlighted Grover Norquist because he has eloquently and simply defined what makes our Republican coalition work, and by default why it has failed in the last few election cycles. Simply put all the people sitting at the Republican table with their different agendas want one thing of the government. They want it to be left alone. The Democrats around the table with their varying agendas want one thing of the government. They want it to give money to them. Throughout Grover’s talk a vague memory kept flittering in and out of consciousness, in writing this I remembered what it was. The famous quote from Barry Goldwater. “Never forget there was only one freedom on which this nation was founded; that was freedom from government.”

The reason for our recent failures at the polls is that the Republican leaders have become like the Democrats in their want and need for government money.George W for example instead of fighting to put in place a new system in welfare to encourage people to get off of it and regain their freedom from government, actually tried to get a new minority on it with his “Compassionate Conservative” boondoggle. Well he did and what he got was less votes and more government, and only the Rhinos liked it.



I also recommend Michelle Malkin’s talk at the event from the You Tube section.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGg2BeYtlkk
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She talks of how since she has been a journalist (17 years) she has constantly heard the refrain of “we must be more moderate”. She never bought into it and espouses the opposite. She councils us to be extreme and loud, in our opposition and in our beliefs. That also is becoming the common refrain from the Conservative Coalition these days, because our members are becoming increasingly fed up. Moderation is sinking our ship. The only change Obama and the Democrats and those wishy washy Republicans have brought to us is biggerer and worser government and less freedom.

Another event in Washington DC is coming up; this event also has some history of greatness. It is called “Defending the American Dream” Oct. 2nd + 3rd. I am trying to find a way to attend the event. I’ve talked with Scott at Americans for Prosperity/ Michigan and he thinks I can get on Bloggers Row so the ticket price will be waived. I just need a cheap way to get there and spend a night in my car or someplace. Anyone else going from Muskegon Mi or Grand Rapids Mi. (or thereabouts) who wants to split some cost let me know.
Bob Carr, glhotdogs@verizon.net. Or just leave a comment.

Regards, Live Dangerously Be A Conservative

The History of Political Correctness

The History of Politically Correctness.

Ever wonder about if and or why the Main Stream Media is slanted with a liberal twist. Ever wonder if it is deliberate or not. Well here is a link to PJTV of a video by Bill Whittle that shows some facts for a change. Watch it, it’s good. Finally see the face of the White Racist toting the assault rifle talked about on the MSM. See for yourself. See above.

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http://www.pjtv.com/v/2343
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Mr. Whittle explains about Critical Theory and how hard it is to fight and how easy it is to use.
It is easy to use because it does not give solutions, it only criticizes. To take this further and apply it to the national scene today we see the failing or fatal flaw of the theory.

The failing is that once in power there is nothing about what to actually do to run a country. If you manage to actually tear down the institutions and individuals that have made this country great, what do you have left. It was done in Russia, what they had left were no innovative thinkers, no more rich people to tax because the state took all the money. They couldn’t tax themselves. They had a bankrupt country with workers being forced to work with no way out through the hope of free enterprise or free elections.

The electorate of America is fed up with being made fun of for creating and sustaining the world’s best country for political reasons. They are fed up with their money being taken for ever multiplying political reasons. We’ve had enough BS and want some facts. We can now get those facts through the internet. The backlash to this PC drivel is beginning. If Churchill were here he would say/ “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

As I would say, we will Make Do with what we have and we will Make it Now, and we will Make it Work. I might add --- while we are still free enough to do so.

Regards, Live Dangerously Be A Conservative

Tea Kettles singing, Town Halls are perking.

In a telephone Town hall Thursday I heard Sens. DeMint and Bachmann hint that they expected the Democrats to use Reconciliation to avoid a Republican filibuster in the Senate in order to be able to pass the Health Care Bill with a 51 vote majority. Arch Conservative Bauer said Republicans should shut down the Senate if that is the case.

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http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/52773
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For some background, this is a link to the history of the # of members of each House of Representatives by Party from the beginning of our country. This is an interesting link to look at.

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http://clerk.house.gov/art_history/house_history/partyDiv.html
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If you notice the house has a breakdown of 178 Republican and 257 Democrat. That is a 79 vote margin. The Republicans would have to gain 40 seats to regain control.

Dave Eberhart writing for Newsmax wrote the following article, claiming that for Republicans now to gain 20 seats in the US House of Representatives is was but is not out of the question. Note, the view is from an article by Charlie Cook, editor and publisher of The Cook Political Report.

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http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/charlie_cook_democrats_/2009/08/21/250796.html?s=al&promo_code=85E2-1
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The reason for this gain in Eberhart’s article according to Cook is as follows.

-----quote from article-------
“All of this is happening against a backdrop of an economy that appears to be rebounding and a resurgent stock market underscores how much the President’s and his party’s legislative agenda have contributed to these poor poll numbers,” Cook concluded.
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In other words the President and his party’s agenda has not been well received and as the Administration is running up against opposition from some of their own and most Republicans, the voters have started to make their opposition known as well.

I think it important to note that there has been an increasingly organized resistance to the new bigger government policies of this administration and that has been playing an increased roll in the poll numbers. Before there was plenty of angst but nowhere to direct it; now there is starting to be.

The new places are easy to join, they are people friendly. People can walk in with a homemade sign and join one of the hundreds of Health Care protests, Town Halls, or Congressional office impromptu meet and greets locally popping up all over. Activist training is being put forward and moved ahead. All this is usually free. They are going after the people knowing that the money will soon follow; a “Build It and They Will Come” business model. It’s working.

The Republican party and their heirarchy need to pick up on that model.

The continued unprecedented rise in the intrusiveness of the Federal Government into the live of free people is taking its toll on the trust people have for Big Government. People don’t see it as getting better only bigger.

The Newsmax article alludes to the idea that the public thinks the Democrats are out of control. By throwing one giant mindboggling program at the public after another without a break to even read or come up with a reasoned debate among reasonable people; this administration is proving to the public that they are indeed out of control.

Also and the point I’m making is that, by this continuous barrage they have given time for the genesis of a new type of grassroots opposition to form.

This has started with different groups on the right banding together to try to take advantage of the angst out there; and what were scattered small groups are reveling in their new found popularity and through that popularity they seem to be trying to live up to what they preach.

It is my opinion that for now 20 is a good number; but if the Republican Party can seriously and honestly get behind this thing then 20 will be on the low side. If a leader, or group of leaders of the party emerges that speaks to the heart of those out there trying to correct an overblown government like a Reagan did then 40 is within our grasp.

By God this time the people will know to keep the pressure on those newly elected to keep their word and the majority.

This may be a dream, but as I look back at the first link above, I see that bigger changes have happened. People like Eric Cantor and Haley Barbour see it happening, I know John Boehner does. Remember that the upcoming Governor elections in New Jersey and Virginia if won by the Republicans will help point the way to a new Republican Revolution.

With all that said, I also see ahead a lot of work needed to not only stop the Health Care Bill but to replace it with something that the people find agreeable. We need then to tackle the Cap and Trade fiasco and not only beat it but find something that works. Those things must satisfy the angst out there without raising taxes, or making government bigger or passing new regulations.

We need not give out more and more of our wealth to buy votes. The only thing the government needs to give out and the people take back is freedom.

Tea Kettles singing, Town Halls are perking and Revolution is brewing.

Regards, Live Dangerously Be A Conservative

Private Option put back in Canadian Health Care Debate

Private Option put back in Canadian Health Care Debate

Lifted this off of Drudge. It is an article by about Canada’s “public option” universal tax payer funded health care system and how it is imploding.

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http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5jbjzPEY0Y3bvRD335rGu_Z3KXoQw
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The article explains how the Canadian system as is any Ponzi scheme is not sustainable. The fact is as the article says the Canadian tax supported “Free” health care system is going broke. Which if left unchanged will lead to even higher taxes and even more rationing and above all longer wait lines.

Perhaps the headline should of read {Canada Considering “Private Option” to help rescue it’s “Public Option” health care system}.

The article went out of its way to make sure that the Public stayed in and the Private would be used just to help things run smoother to get the lines down and be a little more people friendly. That alone is a huge admission that Public read Government programs are hugely inefficient and definitely not user friendly. Also it further admits that the politicians will not give up taking credit for “saving your life” once granted without a fight.

In the article too, it mentions that Canada officials of their system had gone to other countries with socialized health care to get info on how to run theirs better. That kind of reminded me of Obama seeking out the financial advice of Michigan’s governor Jennifer Granholm on how to fix the National financial system. With Detroit and Michigan serving as the poster child for failed Liberal policies, I guess Obama wanted his plans to look good by comparison.

Ps. The Headline of Drudge today was a “white flag” symbolizing that the “public option” was taken off the board by the dems in the Health Care Debate.


Regards, Live Dangerously Be A Conservative

Sea Change

Sea Change in Democrat Soul.

The Democrat party was supposed to be about helping the little guy against “Big” business and anything else big you could think of. Big business, big Pharmaceutical Companies, Big Government, Big Medicine. They have ridden that horse into the ground and have come out fighting for what they had claimed to fight against. Now some “outriders” from the Republican Party are trying to make inroads into their support from the “little people”, us the American People.

I call this group “Outriders” of the Republican Party because these small groups and individuals are the ones on the ground and in the trenches. They are riding ahead and scouting the way and fighting small skirmishes. They are the ones who not only have figured out that the Democrats have forgotten their little people; but have increasingly taken positions which do not favor them and in fact harm them.

For example, they ask what has public ed done for the inner city youth? Why do the Democrats fight so hard against alternatives? It is becoming apparent to more and more “little people”; in this as in all their other positions that the unions of the teachers and workers in the schools are more important than the students. The money flowing from Washington and the state Capitols is the important factor. These fringe GOP leaning groups have started coming up with ways and ideas that the “little people” favor – ways and language that they understand and believe in. These groups are finding ways to commune with America again.

People still believe in themselves and we need to talk to that. If our little children are getting bullied and made fun of for studying and trying to get ahead and being brainwashed with political nonsense from either side, why don’t we have the right to try any other alternative we can come up with?

Ronald Reagan was once characterized elegantly by Miterand the French Premier as told by Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney in this way. “Reagan is not so much a Great Communicator (although he is), as someone who is in communion with the American People.”
Mulroney went on to elaborate. “Great Communicator indicates that you are preaching to or at an audience. When you’re in communion with your audience it means you’re presence is so persuasive and your arguments so well marshaled that your audience is part of them.”

That last part reminded me of Margaret Thatcher who said, and I paraphrase, you must first win the argument to win the election.

Perhaps by President Obama being such a “Great Communicator”; Republicans have a chance to get back in “Communion” with the audience – with the American People. Perhaps we can win the argument.

Bloomberg wrote an excellent article about how things really work in Big Government, how they work and are paid for in the Obama administration. The piece was written by Timothy J. Burger.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aV3dLt6wmZH4
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Patronage and favor granting are a part of all administrations; some more so maybe than others. But to use that as an excuse for more and more of it is like saying everybody has an evil streak so evil is all right. We should recognize something for what it is; whether it is evil or patronage and try to limit it and fight it. We need to ever be vigilant.

It may be the necessary grease that makes the government work, but too much grease will soon rot the wagons wheels. Here is a novel approach that all will understand. Start taking some of the load off the wagon of government, and you’ll get less need for grease and less rot.

Reagan learned from the people from his years in the wilderness by going out and talking with them. Over and Over and Over. Luckily his job was doing just that. He immersed himself in trying to connect with them. Not in trying to manipulate them. At his core Reagan had values and principles from the Midwest. Through this on the job training he learned how to listen to his audience and put his beliefs into words all could understand. Again more of a Communion than a Communication. The Republican Party needs to start backing these “Outrider” groups, but more than that they have to start to try to understand them; just as they must the American People.

Will the Republicans win in 2010 and 2012 by trying to be even more Big government or more Big business than the Democrats are now? Is that even possible? Or can we win by becoming what the Democrats claimed to be in the last century; a voice of the people. We need to become a voice for the average person trying to start up a small business for example or a parent trying to get his child out of a failing and hurtful school. We need to really try to help them. We need to listen and honestly work to that end. How need to champion their dreams and not a bureaucratic dream of stricter and costlier rules and regulations that will stop Americans from even trying?

We need to fix the infrastructure to be user friendly.

The Democrats had theirs. We as Republicans now too need a Sea Change of our soul.

No time like the present.

Regards, Live Dangerously Be A Conservative